Coordinated checkpointing is a widely-used checkpoint/restart protocol for fault-tolerance in large-scale HPC systems. However, this protocol will involve massive amounts of I/O concentration, resulting in considerably high checkpoint overhead and high energy consumption. This paper focuses on speculative checkpointing, a CPR mechanism that allows for temporal distribution of checkpointings to avoid I/O concentration. We propose execution time and energy models for speculative checkpointing, and investigate energy-performance characteristics when speculative checkpointing is adopted in exascale systems. Using these models, we study the benefit of speculative checkpointing over coordinated checkpointing under various realistic scenarios for exascale HPC systems. We show that, compared to coordinated checkpointing, speculative checkpointing can achieve up to a 11% energy reduction at the cost of a relatively-small increase in the execution time. In addition, a significant energy-performance trade-off is expected when the system scale exceeds 1.2 million nodes.