Analyzing short-interval-traffic behaviors is important for network performance management to realize high quality multimedia applications. However, it is difficult to measure short-interval-traffic volumes because there are complications in collecting short-interval-traffic data from routers. An example is a heavy load on routers or inaccurate measurement by the short-polling interval; it even demands expensive measurement tools. To resolve these disadvantages, an estimating method of short-interval-traffic distribution (EMSIT) has been proposed. This method estimates short-interval-traffic distributions using MIB (Management Information Base) data, which collects traffic volumes in cycles of several minutes. In this paper, we propose a new estimation method (EMSIT-LD) based on EMSIT, which applies to the case of long-term-traffic dynamics. We evaluate it using computer simulations and actual traffic data.