This paper is concerned with the evaluation of the block error probability of maximum likelihood decoding (MLD) for a block code or a block modulation code over an AWGN channel. It is infeasible to evaluate the block error probability of MLD for a long block code with a large minimum distance by simulation. In this paper, a new evaluation method of the block error probability of MLD by an analytical method combined with simulation with a low-weight sub-trellis diagram is proposed. We show that this proposed method gives a tighter upper bound on the block error probability than the conventional one, and can be applicable to a relatively long block code with a large minimum distance for which conventional simulation is infeasible.