1-4hit |
Chun-Yu LIU Shu-Nung YAO Ying-Jen CHEN
With advances in information technology and the development of big data, manual operation is unlikely to be a smart choice for stock market investing. Instead, the computer-based investment model is expected to bring investors more accurate strategic analysis and more effective investment decisions than human beings. This paper aims to improve investor profits by mining for critical information in the stock data, therefore helping big data analysis. We used the R language to find the technical indicators in the stock market, and then applied the technical indicators to the prediction. The proposed R package includes several analysis toolkits, such as trend line indicators, W type reversal patterns, V type reversal patterns, and the bull or bear market. The simulation results suggest that the developed R package can accurately present the tendency of the price and enhance the return on investment.
Ce YU Xiang CHEN Chunyu WANG Hutong WU Jizhou SUN Yuelei LI Xiaotao ZHANG
Multi-agent based simulation has been widely used in behavior finance, and several single-processed simulation platforms with Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) have been proposed. However, traditional simulations of stock markets on single processed computers are limited by the computing capability since financial researchers need larger and larger number of agents and more and more rounds to evolve agents' intelligence and get more efficient data. This paper introduces a distributed multi-agent simulation platform, named PSSPAM, for stock market simulation focusing on large scale of parallel agents, communication system and simulation scheduling. A logical architecture for distributed artificial stock market simulation is proposed, containing four loosely coupled modules: agent module, market module, communication system and user interface. With the customizable trading strategies inside, agents are deployed to multiple computing nodes. Agents exchange messages with each other and with the market based on a customizable network topology through a uniform communication system. With a large number of agent threads, the round scheduling strategy is used during the simulation, and a worker pool is applied in the market module. Financial researchers can design their own financial models and run the simulation through the user interface, without caring about the complexity of parallelization and related problems. Two groups of experiments are conducted, one with internal communication between agents and the other without communication between agents, to verify PSSPAM to be compatible with the data from Euronext-NYSE. And the platform shows fair scalability and performance under different parallelism configurations.
Yoshikazu IKEDA Shozo TOKINAGA
There are several methods for generating multi-fractal time series, but the origin of the multi-fractality is not discussed so far. This paper deals with the multi-fractality analysis of time series in an artificial stock market generated by multi-agent systems based on the Genetic Programming (GP) and its applications to feature extractions. Cognitive behaviors of agents are modeled by using the GP to introduce the co-evolutionary (social) learning as well as the individual learning. We assume five types of agents, in which a part of the agents prefer forecast equations or forecast rules to support their decision making, and another type of the agents select decisions at random like a speculator. The agents using forecast equations and rules usually use their own knowledge base, but some of them utilize their public (common) knowledge base to improve trading decisions. For checking the multi-fractality we use an extended method based on the continuous time wavelet transform. Then, it is shown that the time series of the artificial stock price reveals as a multi-fractal signal. We mainly focus on the proportion of the agents of each type. To examine the role of agents of each type, we classify six cases by changing the composition of agents of types. As a result, in several cases we find strict multi-fractality in artificial stock prices, and we see the relationship between the realizability (reproducibility) of multi-fractality and the system parameters. By applying a prediction method for mono-fractal time series as counterparts, features of the multi-fractal time series are extracted. As a result, we examine and find the origin of multi-fractal processes in artificial stock prices.
Jangmin O Jongwoo LEE Jae Won LEE Byoung-Tak ZHANG
Effective trading with given pattern-based multi-predictors of stock price needs an intelligent asset allocation strategy. In this paper, we study a method of dynamic asset allocation, called the meta policy, which decides how much the proportion of asset should be allocated to each recommendation for trade. The meta policy makes a decision considering both the recommending information of multi-predictors and the current ratio of stock funds over the total asset. We adopt evolutionary computation to optimize the meta policy. The experimental results on the Korean stock market show that the trading system with the proposed meta policy outperforms other systems with fixed asset allocation methods.