IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Communications
Effects of Input Data Uncertainties on an Air Traffic Control Difficulty Index
Summary :
Air traffic management (ATM) systems around the world are being modernized to accommodate shifts towards performance- and trajectory-based operations. These shifts will require new indices for safety, efficiency and complexity. The authors have been developing an index for evaluating air traffic control (ATC) difficulty that utilizes the relative positions and velocity vectors of aircraft pairs as input data. Prior to practical application of the index, it is necessary to understand the effects of input data error, i.e. errors in the positions and velocities of a pair of aircraft, on the estimated difficulty value. Two sensitivity analyses were therefore performed for a pair of aircraft cruising at constant speeds on intersecting linear tracks at the same altitude. Sensitivity analysis examines how uncertainty in inputs relates to uncertainty in outputs. Firstly, an analysis of propagation error was carried out. The formula of the propagation error at a certain point was derived based on the assumed input error, and the distribution of propagation error was investigated for all possible situations and compared with the distribution of difficulty values to clarify its characteristics. Secondly, a sensitivity analysis based on variance was carried out that evaluated the effect of each input parameter using a conditional variance value called the Sobol indices. Using a Monte Carlo method, we investigated the effect of each input parameter on the calculated difficulty value for all possible situations of aircraft pairs on intersecting trajectories. As a result, it was found that the parameter that most affects the difficulty value is the intersection angle of the trajectories.
- Publication
- IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Communications Vol.E104-B No.9 pp.1188-1196
- Publication Date
- 2021/09/01
- Publicized
- 2021/03/22
- Online ISSN
- 1745-1345
- DOI
- 10.1587/transcom.2020EBP3019
- Type of Manuscript
- PAPER
- Category
- Navigation, Guidance and Control Systems
Authors
Sakae NAGAOKA
Electronic Navigation Research Institute (ENRI)
Mark BROWN
Electronic Navigation Research Institute (ENRI)
Daniel DELAHAYE
Ecole National de l'Aviation Civile
Keyword
Latest Issue
Copyrights notice of machine-translated contents
The copyright of the original papers published on this site belongs to IEICE. Unauthorized use of the original or translated papers is prohibited. See IEICE Provisions on Copyright for details.
Cite this
Copy
Sakae NAGAOKA, Mark BROWN, Daniel DELAHAYE, "Effects of Input Data Uncertainties on an Air Traffic Control Difficulty Index" in IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Communications,
vol. E104-B, no. 9, pp. 1188-1196, September 2021, doi: 10.1587/transcom.2020EBP3019.
Abstract: Air traffic management (ATM) systems around the world are being modernized to accommodate shifts towards performance- and trajectory-based operations. These shifts will require new indices for safety, efficiency and complexity. The authors have been developing an index for evaluating air traffic control (ATC) difficulty that utilizes the relative positions and velocity vectors of aircraft pairs as input data. Prior to practical application of the index, it is necessary to understand the effects of input data error, i.e. errors in the positions and velocities of a pair of aircraft, on the estimated difficulty value. Two sensitivity analyses were therefore performed for a pair of aircraft cruising at constant speeds on intersecting linear tracks at the same altitude. Sensitivity analysis examines how uncertainty in inputs relates to uncertainty in outputs. Firstly, an analysis of propagation error was carried out. The formula of the propagation error at a certain point was derived based on the assumed input error, and the distribution of propagation error was investigated for all possible situations and compared with the distribution of difficulty values to clarify its characteristics. Secondly, a sensitivity analysis based on variance was carried out that evaluated the effect of each input parameter using a conditional variance value called the Sobol indices. Using a Monte Carlo method, we investigated the effect of each input parameter on the calculated difficulty value for all possible situations of aircraft pairs on intersecting trajectories. As a result, it was found that the parameter that most affects the difficulty value is the intersection angle of the trajectories.
URL: https://global.ieice.org/en_transactions/communications/10.1587/transcom.2020EBP3019/_p
Copy
@ARTICLE{e104-b_9_1188,
author={Sakae NAGAOKA, Mark BROWN, Daniel DELAHAYE, },
journal={IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Communications},
title={Effects of Input Data Uncertainties on an Air Traffic Control Difficulty Index},
year={2021},
volume={E104-B},
number={9},
pages={1188-1196},
abstract={Air traffic management (ATM) systems around the world are being modernized to accommodate shifts towards performance- and trajectory-based operations. These shifts will require new indices for safety, efficiency and complexity. The authors have been developing an index for evaluating air traffic control (ATC) difficulty that utilizes the relative positions and velocity vectors of aircraft pairs as input data. Prior to practical application of the index, it is necessary to understand the effects of input data error, i.e. errors in the positions and velocities of a pair of aircraft, on the estimated difficulty value. Two sensitivity analyses were therefore performed for a pair of aircraft cruising at constant speeds on intersecting linear tracks at the same altitude. Sensitivity analysis examines how uncertainty in inputs relates to uncertainty in outputs. Firstly, an analysis of propagation error was carried out. The formula of the propagation error at a certain point was derived based on the assumed input error, and the distribution of propagation error was investigated for all possible situations and compared with the distribution of difficulty values to clarify its characteristics. Secondly, a sensitivity analysis based on variance was carried out that evaluated the effect of each input parameter using a conditional variance value called the Sobol indices. Using a Monte Carlo method, we investigated the effect of each input parameter on the calculated difficulty value for all possible situations of aircraft pairs on intersecting trajectories. As a result, it was found that the parameter that most affects the difficulty value is the intersection angle of the trajectories.},
keywords={},
doi={10.1587/transcom.2020EBP3019},
ISSN={1745-1345},
month={September},}
Copy
TY - JOUR
TI - Effects of Input Data Uncertainties on an Air Traffic Control Difficulty Index
T2 - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Communications
SP - 1188
EP - 1196
AU - Sakae NAGAOKA
AU - Mark BROWN
AU - Daniel DELAHAYE
PY - 2021
DO - 10.1587/transcom.2020EBP3019
JO - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Communications
SN - 1745-1345
VL - E104-B
IS - 9
JA - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Communications
Y1 - September 2021
AB - Air traffic management (ATM) systems around the world are being modernized to accommodate shifts towards performance- and trajectory-based operations. These shifts will require new indices for safety, efficiency and complexity. The authors have been developing an index for evaluating air traffic control (ATC) difficulty that utilizes the relative positions and velocity vectors of aircraft pairs as input data. Prior to practical application of the index, it is necessary to understand the effects of input data error, i.e. errors in the positions and velocities of a pair of aircraft, on the estimated difficulty value. Two sensitivity analyses were therefore performed for a pair of aircraft cruising at constant speeds on intersecting linear tracks at the same altitude. Sensitivity analysis examines how uncertainty in inputs relates to uncertainty in outputs. Firstly, an analysis of propagation error was carried out. The formula of the propagation error at a certain point was derived based on the assumed input error, and the distribution of propagation error was investigated for all possible situations and compared with the distribution of difficulty values to clarify its characteristics. Secondly, a sensitivity analysis based on variance was carried out that evaluated the effect of each input parameter using a conditional variance value called the Sobol indices. Using a Monte Carlo method, we investigated the effect of each input parameter on the calculated difficulty value for all possible situations of aircraft pairs on intersecting trajectories. As a result, it was found that the parameter that most affects the difficulty value is the intersection angle of the trajectories.
ER -
English
