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A Unified Statistical Rating Method for Team Ball Games and Its Application to Predictions in the Olympic Games
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Summary :
This study tries to construct an accurate ranking method for five team ball games at the Olympic Games. First, the study uses a statistical rating method for team ball games. A single parameter, called a rating, shows the strength and skill of each team. We assume that the difference between the rating values explains the scoring ratio in a match based on a logistic regression model. The rating values are estimated from the scores of major international competitions that are held before the Rio Olympic Games. The predictions at the Rio Olympic Games demonstrate that the proposed method can more accurately predict the match results than the official world rankings or world ranking points. The proposed method enabled 262 correct predictions out of 370 matches, whereas using the official world rankings resulted in only 238 correct predictions. This result shows a significant difference between the two criteria.
- Publication
- IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Information Vol.E102-D No.6 pp.1145-1153
- Publication Date
- 2019/06/01
- Publicized
- 2019/03/11
- Online ISSN
- 1745-1361
- DOI
- 10.1587/transinf.2018EDP7315
- Type of Manuscript
- PAPER
- Category
- Artificial Intelligence, Data Mining
Authors
Eiji KONAKA
Meijo University
Keyword
Latest Issue
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Eiji KONAKA, "A Unified Statistical Rating Method for Team Ball Games and Its Application to Predictions in the Olympic Games" in IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Information,
vol. E102-D, no. 6, pp. 1145-1153, June 2019, doi: 10.1587/transinf.2018EDP7315.
Abstract: This study tries to construct an accurate ranking method for five team ball games at the Olympic Games. First, the study uses a statistical rating method for team ball games. A single parameter, called a rating, shows the strength and skill of each team. We assume that the difference between the rating values explains the scoring ratio in a match based on a logistic regression model. The rating values are estimated from the scores of major international competitions that are held before the Rio Olympic Games. The predictions at the Rio Olympic Games demonstrate that the proposed method can more accurately predict the match results than the official world rankings or world ranking points. The proposed method enabled 262 correct predictions out of 370 matches, whereas using the official world rankings resulted in only 238 correct predictions. This result shows a significant difference between the two criteria.
URL: https://global.ieice.org/en_transactions/information/10.1587/transinf.2018EDP7315/_p
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@ARTICLE{e102-d_6_1145,
author={Eiji KONAKA, },
journal={IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Information},
title={A Unified Statistical Rating Method for Team Ball Games and Its Application to Predictions in the Olympic Games},
year={2019},
volume={E102-D},
number={6},
pages={1145-1153},
abstract={This study tries to construct an accurate ranking method for five team ball games at the Olympic Games. First, the study uses a statistical rating method for team ball games. A single parameter, called a rating, shows the strength and skill of each team. We assume that the difference between the rating values explains the scoring ratio in a match based on a logistic regression model. The rating values are estimated from the scores of major international competitions that are held before the Rio Olympic Games. The predictions at the Rio Olympic Games demonstrate that the proposed method can more accurately predict the match results than the official world rankings or world ranking points. The proposed method enabled 262 correct predictions out of 370 matches, whereas using the official world rankings resulted in only 238 correct predictions. This result shows a significant difference between the two criteria.},
keywords={},
doi={10.1587/transinf.2018EDP7315},
ISSN={1745-1361},
month={June},}
Copy
TY - JOUR
TI - A Unified Statistical Rating Method for Team Ball Games and Its Application to Predictions in the Olympic Games
T2 - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Information
SP - 1145
EP - 1153
AU - Eiji KONAKA
PY - 2019
DO - 10.1587/transinf.2018EDP7315
JO - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Information
SN - 1745-1361
VL - E102-D
IS - 6
JA - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Information
Y1 - June 2019
AB - This study tries to construct an accurate ranking method for five team ball games at the Olympic Games. First, the study uses a statistical rating method for team ball games. A single parameter, called a rating, shows the strength and skill of each team. We assume that the difference between the rating values explains the scoring ratio in a match based on a logistic regression model. The rating values are estimated from the scores of major international competitions that are held before the Rio Olympic Games. The predictions at the Rio Olympic Games demonstrate that the proposed method can more accurately predict the match results than the official world rankings or world ranking points. The proposed method enabled 262 correct predictions out of 370 matches, whereas using the official world rankings resulted in only 238 correct predictions. This result shows a significant difference between the two criteria.
ER -
English
