Investment planning for power plants involves making a long-term plan covering various facility investments, such as the construction of a new power plant or the replacement of an old plant with a new one, under uncertain environments. In this paper, we propose an optimization method for such a planning problem. Our method is based on decision tree analysis, in which uncertain environments are described as scenarios. The maintenance of existing plants is also taken into account by introducing the option of large-scale repair in addition to replacement. In order to avoid combinatorial explosion of failure event scenarios of plants, we introduce the concept of failure risk cost which contributes to simplification of the decision tree and reduction of the calculation time.
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Keiichi HANDA, Shigeru MATSUMOTO, Masashi NAKAMOTO, Naoshi UCHIHIRA, "An Optimization Method for Investment and Maintenance Planning of Power Plants under Uncertain Environments" in IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals,
vol. E88-A, no. 6, pp. 1481-1486, June 2005, doi: 10.1093/ietfec/e88-a.6.1481.
Abstract: Investment planning for power plants involves making a long-term plan covering various facility investments, such as the construction of a new power plant or the replacement of an old plant with a new one, under uncertain environments. In this paper, we propose an optimization method for such a planning problem. Our method is based on decision tree analysis, in which uncertain environments are described as scenarios. The maintenance of existing plants is also taken into account by introducing the option of large-scale repair in addition to replacement. In order to avoid combinatorial explosion of failure event scenarios of plants, we introduce the concept of failure risk cost which contributes to simplification of the decision tree and reduction of the calculation time.
URL: https://global.ieice.org/en_transactions/fundamentals/10.1093/ietfec/e88-a.6.1481/_p
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@ARTICLE{e88-a_6_1481,
author={Keiichi HANDA, Shigeru MATSUMOTO, Masashi NAKAMOTO, Naoshi UCHIHIRA, },
journal={IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals},
title={An Optimization Method for Investment and Maintenance Planning of Power Plants under Uncertain Environments},
year={2005},
volume={E88-A},
number={6},
pages={1481-1486},
abstract={Investment planning for power plants involves making a long-term plan covering various facility investments, such as the construction of a new power plant or the replacement of an old plant with a new one, under uncertain environments. In this paper, we propose an optimization method for such a planning problem. Our method is based on decision tree analysis, in which uncertain environments are described as scenarios. The maintenance of existing plants is also taken into account by introducing the option of large-scale repair in addition to replacement. In order to avoid combinatorial explosion of failure event scenarios of plants, we introduce the concept of failure risk cost which contributes to simplification of the decision tree and reduction of the calculation time.},
keywords={},
doi={10.1093/ietfec/e88-a.6.1481},
ISSN={},
month={June},}
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TY - JOUR
TI - An Optimization Method for Investment and Maintenance Planning of Power Plants under Uncertain Environments
T2 - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals
SP - 1481
EP - 1486
AU - Keiichi HANDA
AU - Shigeru MATSUMOTO
AU - Masashi NAKAMOTO
AU - Naoshi UCHIHIRA
PY - 2005
DO - 10.1093/ietfec/e88-a.6.1481
JO - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals
SN -
VL - E88-A
IS - 6
JA - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals
Y1 - June 2005
AB - Investment planning for power plants involves making a long-term plan covering various facility investments, such as the construction of a new power plant or the replacement of an old plant with a new one, under uncertain environments. In this paper, we propose an optimization method for such a planning problem. Our method is based on decision tree analysis, in which uncertain environments are described as scenarios. The maintenance of existing plants is also taken into account by introducing the option of large-scale repair in addition to replacement. In order to avoid combinatorial explosion of failure event scenarios of plants, we introduce the concept of failure risk cost which contributes to simplification of the decision tree and reduction of the calculation time.
ER -